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My research is focused on improving decision making in the face of significant uncertainty. I know of no better method than decision analysis to accomplish this goal. Decision analysis is a set of axioms, theorems, and methods to transform complex decision problems into ones where the course of action is clear. Decision analysis grew out of the fields of operations research and systems engineering in the mid-1960s and is now applied in every major industry. Please see my CV for more detail.

The following is the summary of my research interests:

• Methodological Areas of Expertise:
  
  • Decision analysis
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Individual and corporate risk preference
  • Value of information and control
  • Scoring of expert forecasts
  • Probability assessment
  • The use of copulas and maximum entropy methods to facilitate probability assessment
  • Modeling of dependence
• Applications:
  
  • Energy, Climate Change, Corporate Strategy and Public Policy
    
    • Value of seismic information
    • Modeling of geologic dependence
    • Optimal exploration
    • Project and cost risk analysis for nuclear plants
    • Uses of geoengineering to offset the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • Healthcare
  • Financial Services and Trading
  • Research and Development

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Luis Montiel, Ph.D., Post-Doctoral Researcher Graduated in May 2012. Research focused on how to effectively model decisions given partial information (e.g., partial information regarding probabilistic dependence).  Montiel, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multi-attribute Utility Functions Given Partial Preference Information.” Under Review at Decision Analysis.  Montiel, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 26-41. PDF Montiel, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. “A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 9(4) 329-347. PDF Montiel, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. "Generating a Random Collection of Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information." Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. PDF. resume

Kun Zan, Ph.D. in progress Passed qualifier and proposal. Researching the properties of value of information. Kun should graduate by August 2013. Zan, Kun and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Properties of Portfolio Value of Information.” Forthcoming in Decision Analysis. website resume

Robert Hammond, PhD. in progress Three years into the program. Has passed qualifier. Researching the errors induced by discretization and probability assessment. Hammond, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “On the Decision Relevance of Stochastic Oil Price Models: A Case Study.” Forthcoming at The Engineering Economist. Hammond, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Continuous Probability Distributions Using the 10th, 50th, and 90th Percentiles.” Forthcoming in The Engineering Economist.  Hammond, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 6-25. PDF resume

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

Seong-Dae Kim, Ph.D., 2009. Now at the University of Alaska at Anchorage Value of investments in better forecasting or increased evacuation speed in the face of natural disasters. He has published his research in the Monthly Weather Review, IEEE Systems, Proceedings of the AMS 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, and the Proceedings of the Society of Engineering Science. website resume

2011 SPE Outstanding Technical Editor
2011 FellowSociety of Decision Professionals
2010 NSF CAREER Award
2006 Winner of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society
2006 Practice Award

Refereed Journal Papers, published or accepted for publication (* = Student)

1. Puerta-Ortega*, Carlos, J. Eric Bickel and Susan Hovorka. 2013. “Assessing the value of permeability data in a carbon capture and storage project.” Forthcoming at International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control.

2. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “On the Decision Relevance of Stochastic Oil Price Models: A Case Study.” Forthcoming at The Engineering Economist.

3. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Continuous Probability Distributions Using the 10th, 50th, and 90th Percentiles.” Forthcoming in The Engineering Economist.
   doi: 10.1080/0013791X.2013.793761.

4. Bickel, J. Eric. 2013. “Climate engineering and climate tipping-point scenarios.” Environment, Systems & Decisions 33(1) 152-167. doi: 10.1007/s10669-013-9435-8. PDF.

5. Zan*, Kun and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Components of Portfolio Value of Information.” Forthcoming in Decision Analysis.

6. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 26-41. doi:10.1287/deca.1120.0261. PDF.

7. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 6-25. doi: 10.1287/deca.1120.0260. PDF. Supplement.

8. Keller, L. Robin, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, et al. 2012. “From the Editors-Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus.” Decision Analysis 9(4) 297-302. doi:10.1287/deca.1120.0255.

9. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. “A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 9(4) 329-347. doi: 10.1287/deca.1120.0252. PDF.

10. Bickel, J. Eric. 2012. “Discretization, Simulation, and the Value of Information.” SPE Economics & Management 4(4) 198-203. doi: 10.2118/145690-PA.

11. Bickel, J. Eric and Shubham Agrawal*. 2012. “Reconsidering the economics of aerosol geoengineering.” Forthcoming in Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0619-x. PDF | Supplement

12. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. "Generating a Random Collection of Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information." Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability.
    doi: 10.1007/s11009-012-9292-9. PDF.

13. Keller, L. Robin, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, et al. 2011. “From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis.” Decision Analysis 8(4) 251-255.
    doi: 10.1287/deca.1110.0222.

14. Bickel, J. Eric, Eric Floehr, and Seong-Dae Kim*. 2011. “Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers.” Monthly Weather Review 139(11) 3304-3321. doi: 10.1175/2011MWR3525.1. PDF

15. Bickel, J. Eric, Larry W. Lake, John Lehman. 2011. “Discretization, Simulation, and Swanson’s (Inaccurate) Mean.” SPE Economics & Management 3(3) 128-140. doi: 10.2118/148542-PA. PDF

16. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. "Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education." Decision Analysis 7(4) 346-357. doi: 10.1287/deca.1100.0184.  PDF

17. Kim*, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2010. "Roads or Radar: The Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting when Facing Hurricane Risk." IEEE Systems Journal 4(3) 363-375.
    doi: 10.1109/JSYST.2010.2050372.

18. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Hans Petter Lohne. 2009. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future." SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 12(4) 630-638.
    doi: 10.2118/110378-PA.

19. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “On the Decision to Take a Pitch.” Decision Analysis 6(3) 186-193.
    doi: 10.1287/deca.1090.0145. PDF

20. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2008. "From Uncertainty Quantification to Decision Making in the Oil and Gas Industry." Energy Exploration and Exploitation 26(5) 311-325.
    doi: 10.1260/014459808787945344.

21. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts." Monthly Weather Review 136(12) 4867-4881. doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2547.1. PDF

22. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2008. "Quantifying the Reliability and Value of 3D Land Seismic." SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 11(5) 832-841. doi: 10.2118/102340-PA.

23. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "The Relationship Between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem." Decision Analysis 5(3) 116-128. doi: 10.1287/deca.1080.0118. PDF

24. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2008. "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 11(2) 352-361.
    doi: 10.2118/102369-PA. Spreadsheet    

25. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Some Comparisons between Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis 4(2) 49-65. doi: 10.1287/deca.1070.0089. PDF | Supplement

26. Bickel, J. Eric. 2006. "Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion," Decision Analysis 3(4) 233-251. doi: 10.1287/deca.1060.0080. PDF

27. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis 3(1), 16-32. doi: 10.1287/deca.1050.0052. PDF | Spreadsheet

28. Pickering, Steve and J. Eric Bickel. 2006. "The Value of Seismic Information," Oil and Gas Financial Journal 3(5), 26-33. PDF

29. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples," INFORMS Transactions on Education 5(1) 2-9. doi: 10.1287/ited.5.1.2. PDF

30. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Why it is So Hard to Hit .400: New Insights into an Old Statistic," The Baseball Research Journal 32, 15-21. PDF

31. Bickel, J. Eric and Dean A. Stotz. 2002. "Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type: Fact and Fallacy," The Baseball Research Journal 31, 29-34. PDF

Manuscripts Under Review (* = Student)

1. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Discretization Methods for Continuous Probability Distributions.” Under Review at the Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science.
2. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multi-linear Utility Functions Given Partial Preference Information.” Under Review at Decision Analysis.
3. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong Dae Kim*. 2013. “Reexamining the efficiency of the Major League Baseball over-under betting Market.” Under Review at the Journal of Sports Economics.
4. Hirotsu, Nobu and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Optimal batting orders in run-limit-rule baseball: A Markov-chain approach.” Under review at Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
5. Canion*, B., E. Bickel, C. Hadlock*, D. Morton, and E. Schneider. 2013. “Game Theoretic Analysis of Physical Protection System Design.” Under review at the Proceedings of GLOBAL 2013.

Book Chapters

1. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2013. “Climate Engineering: Climate Engineering R&D.” In: Global Problems, Smart Solutions, Bjørn Lomborg (ed.). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. This work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus 2012 led by Bjørn Lomborg. Expert panel: Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Robert Mundell (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey.
2. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2011. "Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions." Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
3. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Hans Petter Lohne. 2011. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future." Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
4. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2011. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value." Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
5. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2010. “Climate Engineering.” In: Smart Solutions for Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits, Bjørn Lomborg (ed). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
   a. This work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate Project. The Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC) has been named by the University of Pennsylvania as one of the top-10 think tanks in the world. http://www.gotothinktank.com/
   b. The CCC is directed by Bjørn Lomborg, who has been named one of the 100 Top Global Thinkers by Foreign Policy, one of the world’s 75 most influential people by Esquire, and one of 50 people who could save the planet by the UK Guardian.
   c. Our research was ranked first by an expert panel comprised of Jagdish Bhagwati, Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey. http://fixtheclimate.com/#/component-1/the-result-prioritization/

 

Technical Reports

1. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2012. “Climate Engineering: Climate Engineering R&D.” Copenhagen Consensus 2012 led by Bjørn Lomborg. Expert panel: Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Robert Mundell (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey. PDF.
2. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “The Climate Engineering Option: Economics and Policy Implications.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. PDF
3. Lane, Lee and J. Eric Bickel. 2009. “Solar Radiation Management and Rethinking the Goals of COP-15.” In: Bickel, J. Eric, Lee Lane, Chris Green, Isabel Galiana, and Valentina, Introduction by Bjørn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers. http://fixtheclimate.com/
4. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2009. “The Potential Benefits of Climate Engineering: A Case for Research.” In: Copenhagen Consensus Recommendations for COP-15. Solutions ranked #1 and #3 by an expert panel of economists including three Nobel laureates in economics. You can find the results here http://fixtheclimate.com. You can read about my experience here.

Conference Proceedings

1. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “Experiential Learning and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules,” ASEE Annual Conference, Paper AC 2009-2249, Austin, TX, 17 June. PDF

2. Bickel. J. Eric and Kun Zan. 2009. “Resource Allocation and the Value of Information,” Grant # 090774 presented at the NSF CMII Research and Innovation Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, 25-29 June. PDF

3. Yu, O.-Y, S. D. Guikema, J. E. Bickel, J.-L. Briaud, and D. B. Burnett. 2009. "Systems Approach and Quantitative Decision Tools for Technology Selection in Environmentally Friendly Drilling," paper SPE 120848 presented at the SPE Environmental & Safety Conference, San Antonio, Texas, 23-25 March.

4. Arcos, D., D. Zhu, and E. Bickel. 2008. "Technical, Economic and Risk Analysis for a Multilateral Well," paper SPE 115099 presented at the SPE Russian Oil and Gas Technical Conference and Exhibition, Moscow, Russia, 28-30 October.

5. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2008. "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Tropical Cyclone Risk," 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, 28 April -02 May. PDF

6. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," presented at the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 88th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 23 January. PDF

7. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. "Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion," paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

8. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future," paper SPE 110378 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

9. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2007. "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Hurricane Risk," Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Society of Engineering Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 21-24 October. PDF

10. Gibson, Rick, J. Eric Bickel, Duane McVay, and Steve Pickering. 2007. " Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Seismic Information Value," SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts 26(1), 71-75. PDF

11. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2006. "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," paper SPE 102369 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

12. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," paper SPE 102340 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

13. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," EAGE Expanded Abstracts, B012. PDF

In Preparation for Journal Submission (* = Student)

1. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Testing the Accuracy to Joint Probability Distribution Approximations Given Partial Information.”
2. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Generalized Sampling Methods for Decision Making with Partial Probabilistic or Preference Information.”
3. Kim*, Seong-Dae, Robert K. Hammond*, and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “On the Accuracy of PERT Discretizations.”
4. Thomas*, Philip, Reidar Bratvold, and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “The Risk of Using Risk Matrices.”
5. Hirotsu, Nobu and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Optimal Batting Orders Under a Run Limit: A Markov-Chain Approach.”

The University of Texas at Austin

• “Project 20K: Quantifying System Reliability to Inform Concept Selection.” $186,917. BP America Production Company. J. Eric Bickel (PI).      
• “Towards an Emergent Model of Technology Adoption for Accelerating the Diffusion of Residential Solar PV.” $492,096. Department of Energy. J. Eric Bickel (Sr. Personnel).
• “Real-time Steering Decision during Drilling.” $69,325, 2 years, Centre for Drilling and Wells for Improved Recovery (Norway), 2 years. J. Eric Bickel (PI).            
• “Support for Risk-Informed Security Analysis Methodology with Applications to Small Modular Reactors,” $180,000, 1 year, Sandia National Labs. Erich Schneider, David Morton, J. Eric Bickel (co-PI).
•  “Quantifying the Benefit of CCS Monitoring and Verification Technologies,” $44,560, 1 year, BP America Production Company. J. Eric Bickel (PI).
• “CAREER: Accurate and Efficient Modeling of Probabilistic Dependence and its Impact on Decision Making Under Uncertainty,” $400,000, 5 years, The National Science Foundation, SEE, Bickel, J. Eric (PI)
• "Developing Comprehensive Risk Assessment Frameworks for Geological Storage of CO2," $1,996,132, 3 years, DOE, NETL, Bickel, J. E. (co-PI), I. Duncan (co-PI).
• "Optimizing Development Strategies to Increase Reserves in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs," $395,000 (includes $80,000 in industry cost sharing from Unconventional Gas Resources Canada Operating Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co), 2 years, Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (DOE), Bickel, J. Eric. (co-PI), D. McVay (co-PI).            
• “SGER: Value of Information in Stochastic Knapsack Problems,” $120,000, 2 years, The National Science Foundation, SEE, Bickel, J. Eric (PI).

Texas A&M University

• "Quantifying the Value of Seismic Information: Phase 2," Funded by Schlumberger, $125,000, Bickel, J. Eric (PI), Duane McVay, Rick Gibson. 2005.
• "Quantifying the Value of Seismic Information: Phase 1," Funded by Schlumberger, $50,000, Bickel, J. Eric (PI), Duane McVay, Rick Gibson. 2004.
• "Pathways to Doctorate Program," Texas A&M University, $25,000, Bickel J. Eric (PI). 2004.
• "Copulas and Energy Commodity Pricing," Funded by Suez Energy North America, $15,000, Bickel, J. Eric (PI). 2004.

NSF (National Science Foundation)
RPSEA (Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America)
DOE (Department of Energy)
WesternGeco
Schlumberger
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

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